Dr Katrina Lake

Consultant Clinical Psychologist - Online - sheffield and birmingham

What is Predictive Processing, and What Does It Have to Do With Anxiety?

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If you have ever been told to "just think positive" or "challenge your negative thoughts," you will know how unhelpful that can feel when you are in the grip of anxiety. It can seem as though your mind is not choosing to think anxious thoughts at all. It is simply doing what it always does, and you are along for the ride.

There is a way of understanding the brain that I find genuinely useful here, both in my own thinking and in the work I do with clients. It is called predictive processing, and it offers a rather different picture of how the mind works than the one most of us grew up with.

Your brain is not a camera. It is a prediction machine.

Most of us assume the brain works something like a camera. The world happens, our senses take it in, and the brain builds a picture based on what actually occurred. Predictive processing suggests something closer to the opposite.

Rather than waiting to receive information and then making sense of it, your brain is constantly generating predictions about what is about to happen, based on everything it has learned before. It then compares those predictions against the information coming in from your senses. When the two match closely enough, you experience the world as familiar and manageable. When they do not match, your brain has to work harder to update itself, and that mismatch is often where difficult feelings come in.

In other words, a great deal of what you experience as "reality" is actually your brain's best guess, refined moment to moment by incoming information, but a guess nonetheless.

Why this matters for anxiety

If anxiety has been part of your life for a while, your brain has almost certainly built up a very confident set of predictions about danger, about other people, about your own capability, or about what is likely to go wrong. These predictions were probably useful once. They may have kept you safe, or helped you cope with something genuinely difficult.

The trouble is that once a prediction becomes strong enough, the brain starts to favour it over new evidence. This is not a character flaw or a failure of willpower. It is simply how prediction-based systems work. A confident prediction is efficient. It lets the brain act quickly rather than reprocessing everything from scratch each time. But it also means that new information, including the information that things are actually going fine, can struggle to get through.

This is part of why simply telling yourself "there's nothing to worry about" so rarely works. You are trying to argue with a prediction using logic, when the prediction was never built from logic in the first place. It was built from experience, and it will only really shift through new experience.

A different way of thinking about therapy

This is one of the reasons I find predictive processing such a useful frame in clinical work. It reframes anxiety not as something broken that needs fixing, but as an old, overlearned prediction that needs updating.

That shift matters. It means the goal is not to force yourself to feel calm through sheer effort, or to argue yourself out of a fear using reason alone. The goal is to help your brain gather enough new, different experience that it can gradually begin to trust a different prediction.

This is part of why approaches such as EMDR and imagery-based work can be so effective. They are not simply "talking about" the anxiety. They are helping the brain process and integrate new information in a way that can genuinely shift the underlying prediction, rather than layering a new thought on top of an old one that never really moved.

Where this leaves you

If you recognise this pattern in yourself, an anxious response that feels automatic, disproportionate, or resistant to reasoning, it may help to know that this is not a sign that something is wrong with you. It is a sign that your brain learned, at some point, that a certain kind of vigilance was necessary. That prediction can be updated, but it tends to need more than willpower or positive thinking. It usually needs new experience, held in a way that allows the brain to actually take it in.

That is often where therapy can help, not by asking you to think your way out of anxiety, but by creating the conditions in which your brain can genuinely learn something new.

If this resonates with you and you would like to explore this way of working, I would be glad to hear from you.

© Dr Katrina Lake

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